The Iowa Straw Poll Is No More
The Iowa straw poll—long an object of fascination for political reporters and presidential campaign strategists alike—has been canceled, according to the Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs.
On Friday, the Iowa State Republican Party voted unanimously to end the poll, which has been a dubious predictor of which Republican is most likely to win the party's presidential nomination. Since 1979, the poll has correctly predicted the Republican nominee twice—Bob Dole, who tied with Phil Gramm in the 1995 poll, and George W. Bush in 1999.
Mitt Romney won the poll in 2007, which you could argue was a prescient pick; he ended up being the nominee the following cycle. In 2011, Rep. Michele Bachmann—a Tea Party favorite, but a candidate with little mainstream appeal—ended up winning the Iowa Straw Poll over Romney.
Unlike Republicans in the state, Iowa Democrats have not conducted a straw poll as part of their side of the Iowa caucuses.
On Friday, the Iowa State Republican Party voted unanimously to end the poll, which has been a dubious predictor of which Republican is most likely to win the party's presidential nomination. Since 1979, the poll has correctly predicted the Republican nominee twice—Bob Dole, who tied with Phil Gramm in the 1995 poll, and George W. Bush in 1999.
Mitt Romney won the poll in 2007, which you could argue was a prescient pick; he ended up being the nominee the following cycle. In 2011, Rep. Michele Bachmann—a Tea Party favorite, but a candidate with little mainstream appeal—ended up winning the Iowa Straw Poll over Romney.
Unlike Republicans in the state, Iowa Democrats have not conducted a straw poll as part of their side of the Iowa caucuses.
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